Prospects Who Could Breakout for the Cubs in 2026

With graduations from former top prospects such as Cade Horton and Matt Shaw in 2025, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch in 2024, the Cubs farm system lacks the top-tier talent it once did. While Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros still qualify as prospects, they are expected to graduate from prospect status early in 2026, leaving Jaxon Wiggins as the lone top 100 prospect in the Cubs system. However, there is hope that the new crop of top prospects is on their way with players who are primed for a breakout in 2026.

2025 draft class shows flashes of stardom

The Chicago Cubs opened their 2025 draft by selecting Wake Forest outfielder Ethan Conrad 17th overall—a player who could make his debut as early as the summer of 2026. After a stellar career at Marist College slashing .318/.382/.521, Conrad transferred to ACC power Wake Forest and was prepped for a big season for the Demon Deacons. However, after logging only 21 games, Conrad’s season was cut short after he dislocated his throwing shoulder and had surgery. But in those 21 games, Conrad did not disappoint, putting up an OPS of 1.238 and blasting seven long balls.

The Cubs have not been fazed by drafting players with injury history as they did so with Cade Horton and Cam Smith. They put a high emphasis on Cape Cod league play and Conrad is no exception. Once again, putting up video game numbers finishing the 2024 Cape Cod season with a .920 OPS. Conrad can play all three outfield spots and has the speed to stick in center, but with Pete Crow-Armstrong patrolling CF for the Cubs for the foreseeable future, Conrad profiles as a corner outfielder where his above average power should play nicely.

Conrad currently sits as the Cubs sixth best prospect according to MLB.com, but with the sooner-than-later graduations for Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros, Conrad could climb quickly up the rankings. Conrad has hit everywhere he has been and an assignment to High-A South Bend should test the young outfielder as he returns from injury. But the indication is that Conrad will be ready for the start of the minor league season and with the track record of success, Conrad will be a name to breakout in 2026.

Former Two-Way picks pro pitching over collegiate hitting

The Cubs selected their first prep player in 2025 when they drafted RHP Kaleb Wing out of Scotts Valley High School (CA) in the fourth round. The Cubs lured Wing away from his Loyola Marymount commitment with a $1.5 million overslot bonus. Wing impressed scouts with an uptick in his velocity after sitting in the high 80s and low 90s his junior year to topping out at 96 his senior year. The 18 year-old features a classic starter mix of a fastball/curveball/changeup and flashes good break on his secondaries and good carry on the fastball.

2026 will be Wing’s first full season as a pitcher after playing shortstop when he wasn’t pitching. But that athleticism that he showed in the field should translate to the mound as he stands at 6’2” 180lbs and has a frame that can put on muscle and potentially add more consistent velocity as he ages. Wing will more than likely make his pro debut at the Arizona Complex League as he develops a plan of attack on the mound and gets his feet wet as a professional.

The Cubs current minor league pitching depth is thin and there will be high expectations on Wing to become the Cubs next big pitching prospect. However, he features above average pitches and throws strikes consistently. If Wing can keep that up, he could become that aforementioned next big pitching prospect and with time on his side, he will be a fun name to watch as he climbs the ladder up to the big leagues.

West Coast power on the way to the North Side

Big, strong, power hitting outfielders will always draw eyes when taking batting practice, and that’s what the Cubs got in sixth round draft pick, Josiah Hartshorn. Standing at a daunting 6’2” 220lbs at just 18 years old, it’s not hard to see why scouts thought that the Californian could go in the first three rounds of the draft as he offered arguably the best power from a prep bat in the draft. But with a strong commitment to Texas A&M and a history of minor injuries, he fell to the 6th round where the Cubs popped him 181st overall.

The power and switch hitting ability were enough for the Cubs to feel confident in drafting Hartshorn and giving him a sixth-round-record $2 million. Like Wing, Hartshorn will most likely start at the complex to get acclimated to being a professional, but Hartshorn could make his way to Low-A Myrtle Beach by mid-season. Despite the harsh hitting conditions in Low-A, Hartshorn has the power to really stand out and if all goes well, could be assigned to High-A South Bend for a playoff run with the SB Cubs. If he in fact does that, evaluators will see Hartshorn as a big time power prospect and will rank him accordingly.

Complex bat makes his way to affiliated ball

“I’m telling you right now .. fastest bat speed in all of the system”. That is what Bryan Smith, Cubs prospect writer and podcaster had to say about Edguardo De Leon the first time he saw him in Arizona soon after De Leon made it stateside. De Leon has spent the last two seasons in the DCL and the ACL and will now play his first full season in affiliated ball when he suits up for the Pelicans in Low-A Myrtle Beach. At 170lbs, De Leon has a projectable build and once he puts on some more muscle, the power we saw in the complex leagues should materialize in affiliated ball. The power tool is average to above average and did show in the last two seasons as he logged 27 extra base hits in 91 games. His power and ability to take walks led to an impressive slash line of .276/.395/.465 in those 91 games.

There is a fair bit of swing and miss in his game, but his ability to work at bats and see pitches is impressive for his age. He slashed his swinging strike rate by 12% (dropping from 29.7% in 2024 to 17.6% in 2025), which fueled a 17% jump in his contact rate (46% in 2024 to 63.2% in 2025). While the bat has improved in his short time in the organization, the glove still needs work. He logged most of his innings at first base this past season, but has played third and he could develop into a solid corner infielder with his athleticism. 

De Leon will join a talented group of prospects with the Pelicans that were able to take charge of the Carolina league down the stretch and should help the young infielder get accustomed to playing in affiliated ball. Overall, De Leon still needs to develop more game power and his defense, but should play the full season at Low-A and play well enough to get recognized for his hard work inside the Cubs top 30.

Affiliated players to make the jump in 2026

In recent years, the Cubs have been able to draft and develop to supplement the big league club (Cade Horton and Justin Steele) and have also used those pitching prospects as the headline in deals to bring proven big leaguers into the clubhouse via trade (Ty Johnson, Hunter Bigge and DJ Herz). However, the depth isn’t quite where it once was after trading those prospects, but two arms who could make the jump and once again fill the farm with depth are on their way.

Unlikely Arm Impresses 

The first name is an unorthodox arm and a testament to the Cubs internal R&D team and new vice president of pitching, Tyler Zombro. 2024 undrafted free agent Jackson Kirkpatrick has turned heads and made quite the impression in his professional debut in 2025. After posting a 10+ ERA in college, Kirkpatrick turned to Tread Athletics to help him turn his career around. Before he was signed by the Cubs as a special assistant inside the Cubs org, Tyler Zombro worked with Tread Athletics and most likely had a say in the Cubs bringing in the 6’7” Kirkpatrick.

If his 6’7” frame didn’t stand out, his 97 mph fastball sure did. After working with Tread and signing with the Cubs, Kirkpatrick was assigned to Low-A Myrtle Beach and absolutely dominated with that fastball. In 15 games with the Pelicans, the righty locked down 7 saves, posted an 0.84 ERA, and punched out 36 in 21 ⅓ innings. He was moved up to High-A South Bend and continued his dominance, finishing with a 1.19 ERA, three saves, and another 29 K’s in 22 ⅔ innings. Overall, his season marks of a 1.02 ERA, 10 saves, and 65 strikeouts in 44 innings make him one of the most intriguing relievers in the Cubs system. As with most flamethrowers though, the walks remain a concern (30 in 44 IP), but he didn’t allow a home run and limited hits to a 4.3 per nine clip in ’25.

Relievers don’t carry much prospect intrigue, but at the end of the day, results are all that matter (Devin Williams ranked as the Brewers No. 15 prospect prior to his debut and Kenley Jansen ranked as the Dodgers No. 7 in 2011). So Kirkpatrick might not reach top 10 prospect status in the Cubs system, but if he can reign in some of the control and continue to blow fastballs by hitters, he could be a valued contributor for the Cubs sooner rather than later.

Low-A arm makes impressive jump and turns heads

Outside of Jaxon Wiggins, Kaleb Wing, and Brandon Birdsell, the Cubs farm system doesn’t have an arm who provides upside as a middle to top of the rotation arm. However, Jostin Florentino broke out in 2025 but was left off MLB.com’s final top 30 prospects for the Cubs. His breakout came in the form of him gaining an unheard of 5mph on his fastball, unfortunately, his fastball currently averages 90 mph. Even without the top end velocity though, Florentino was still able to carve up the minor leagues in his first full season stateside.

After a couple of seasons with the Cubs Dominican Republic complex, the Cubs started off the then 20-year-old at the Arizona complex. Florentino proved he was too good for that competition, striking out 34 and walking only 5 in 21 ⅔ innings, so he joined the Pelicans in Low-A and pitched even better. With his new 90 mph fastball, Florentino continued to pound the zone with strikes and getting excellent results. He pitched in 11 games (10 starts), logging a 1.96 ERA in 59 ⅔ innings. He walked 20 and struckout 67 and only allowed 1 homerun. Florentino leans heavily on a fastball/sweeper combo and throws a whippy sidearm motion, paired with his six foot frame and great extension, he gets on hitters and makes his fastball play up.

Throughout his career in the minor leagues, velo is going to be the main talking point with him. While he is able to work effectively with a 90 mph fastball in the lower minors, the days of soft tossers like former Cub Kyle Hendricks are gone and 92 mph seems to be the requirement for a big league starter. But the Cubs have added velocity to guys like Brad Keller (+3.4 mph from ‘24 to ‘25) and Colin Rea (+1.8 MPH). While it is unlikely that Florentino makes another 5 mph jump, if he can add another 2-3 mph his ability to continue to get hitters out as he climbs the system will only get better. 

Florentino has made his name known in the lower minors as a force to be reckoned with, so much so that he was named Carolina League pitcher of the month in July and earned an All-Star selection. That All-Star was the second consecutive All-Star nod, as he was named a Dominican Summer League Mid-Season All-Star the year before. And while league wide recognition is quite impressive, it's the national recognition that really hits home the idea that he might be a name to watch. His excellent season caught the attention of the evaluators at Wrigley as they named him the Cubs Minor League Pitcher of the Year, tying former Cubs prospect DJ Herz for the youngest to win the award at 20 years old. 

As mentioned before, the fastball velocity will determine whether or not he will become a big league contributor. But he is just 21 and will not turn 22 until December of 2027. He has plenty of time to put on muscle and add a few mph on his fastball. His sweeper is already a plus pitch, dancing its way to the zone after he throws it. Accolades and performance make this Dominican Republic native a name to underline and should make his way into the Cubs top 30 sooner than later, and continued dominance might propel him into top arm in the system status.

Outfielder shows flashes and traits to dream on

Low-A Myrtle Beach had one of the more interesting seasons amongst Cubs affiliates in recent memory. With many of the Cubs top prospects playing for the Pelicans, there was excitement around the club to come out of the gates strong. But after struggling to start the season, that excitement faded. However, the team came together for a second half to remember. After starting 25-39 in the first half, the Pelicans finished with a second half record of 43-21, tying St. Lucie for the best second half mark in all of Low-A. One main contributor to the Pelicans success was arguably the best athlete in the Cubs system, Alexey Lumpuy. 

After going unnoticed as an international free agent, Lumpuy signed with the Cubs for $90,000 and spent two seasons in the DSL where he flashed his excellent athleticism. He blasted four home runs, legged out 12 triples, posted a .534 slug, and added 20 stolen bases in just 45 games in 2024. The Cubs assigned him to Myrtle Beach in 2025 with the hope he would continue to display the power. But after slashing an abysmal .159/.241/.267 from April through June, there was a lot left to be desired. However, like most of the Pelicans hitters, Lumpuy found his footing in the second half. 

He started off July logging hits in 10 of his first 12 games, launching two home runs, two triples, five doubles and seven stolen bases. Overall, Lumpuy hit .314/.377/.600 in July, earning him July Carolina League Hitter of the Month. Lumpuy finished the 2025 campaign hitting .262/.349/.465 in the final 47 games.

It’s important to note that the Carolina League is one of the hardest hitting environments in all of minor league baseball. In 2025, no team had a team OPS higher than .698 (CAR) and a slug higher than .359 (SAL). The MLB average for team OPS in 2025 was .719 and average slug was .404. With a few excelling in this environment (Caleb Bonemer of CWS and Justin Gonzalez of BOS the only qualified hitters finishing with OPS’ over .800), Lumpuy’s second half becomes even more impressive. 

His season 98 wRC+ (a metric to measure a players offensive value regardless of ballpark and hitting environment) categorizes him as slightly worse than league average (100 being average, 110 above average, 90 below average).  He obviously put himself behind the eight ball to start 2025, but he flashed brilliance in the second half. While the concerns about the swing and miss are real (38.9% K rate in the first half and 30% in the second half), he did show the ability to take walks finishing with a BB% of 9.4% in the second half. And while the bat is something to dream on, his floor as a defender is as high as it gets. He does not have the top end speed Pete Crow-Armstong has, but he gets excellent jumps and has a very strong arm.

Lumpuy possesses athleticism that very few have, especially in the Cubs system. His combination of speed, raw power, arm talent, and base stealing ability make him one of the most exciting prospects the Cubs have. He will most likely start the year back in Low-A, but should he start off like he finished in 2025, he will be at High-A South Bend sooner than later. And with his raw tools and star like flashes, he could garner the attention of national evaluators and they could see how special he can be and rank him accordingly.

Catcher makes headlines in Arizona

Since Wilson Contreras, the Cubs have lacked that big time catching prospect. Moises Ballesteros is a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball, but is ranked because of his hit tool and his defense behind the plate is severely lacking, leaving him as a DH only option and while Miguel Amaya has been a productive big leaguer, he was never viewed as a can’t miss prospect. The Cubs system still lacks that true catching prospect, but Owen Ayers could vault himself into the conversation of being a potential big league catcher.

The Cubs took Ayers in the 19th round of the 2024 draft out of Marshall and assigned him to Low-A Myrtle Beach. His post draft-shortened season did not go well, his sub .200 batting average and .573 OPS left him as an afterthought and most likely no more than someone who could fill out a lineup. However, in 2025, Ayers changed the narrative around him. Of the eight catchers that logged 200 plate appearances for the Cubs minor league system, Ayers led all catchers in wRC+. His 124 mark was slightly better than Ballesteros (121 in AAA) who possesses an + hit tool.  

He showed off the skills that got him drafted in 2025, the ability to switch hit, hit for a little power, limit strikeouts and take his walks. As mentioned earlier, the Carolina League isn’t a friendly league to hitters. His .238/.341/.420 slash line on the surface isn’t that impressive, but his 124 wRC+ and .761 OPS among hitters with 200 plate appearances places him in the top 15 hitters in the Carolina League and his .182 isolated power ranked him tied him for 4th in 2025.

After a late season injury sidelined Ayers down the stretch, the Cubs assigned Ayers to the AFL to get more playing time against some of the best of the best the minor leagues have to offer. In 2025, eight top 100 prospects, 30 players on team individual top 30 prospect lists and former top 100 prospects and very talented players coming back from injury made their way down to Arizona. Ayers put up some serious numbers against better competition, ranking inside the top 10 in numerous statistical categories, most notably his .379 batting average (4th) and his .539 OPB (2nd). While he did not take home league MVP honors (MLB.com’s No. 2 prospect Kevin McGonigle), he was recognized for his efforts by earning the Breakout Player of the Year award, an accolade that could be foreshadowing for what's in store for the catcher in 2026.

The Cubs in recent seasons have seen some excellent performances in the AFL which have correlated to either recognition as top prospects (Jonathon Long and James Triantos) or making their way up to the big leagues (Nelson Velazquez, Matt Mervis, and Kevin Alcantara).

With the lack of pure catching prospects in the Cubs system and the need for a catcher to break out in 2026, Ayers could be the answer for both problems. He will likely be assigned to High-A South Bend and will still be old for the level, but his advanced approach and being able to hit a more hitter friendly environment should only help Ayers rise up Cubs prospect rankings. Ayers will provide tremendous value at any level he plays at this season, and with the lack of not only catching prospects, but overall catching depth in the organization, Ayers could find his way up to Wrigley to fill in should he continue to hit like he did in the fall league.

The Chicago Cubs have boasted one of the better farm systems since Jed Hoyer took over in late 2020. They have drafted and developed their first rounders nicely, with all of Hoyer’s picks besides Ethan Conrad making it up to the big leagues. They have also done well scouting in the later rounds (Jonathon Long and Porter Hodge), in international scouting (Moises Ballesteros and Jefferson Rojas) and bringing in talent from overseas (Shota Imanaga and Seiya Suzuki). 

But with many of their former top prospects (Cade Horton, Matt Shaw and Pete Crow-Armstrong) graduating from prospect status and others projected to lose their status in 2026 (Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros), the Cubs are in need of a “restocking of the shelves” in their minor league system. Players like the ones mentioned above could give the Cubs quite the farm system with players at all levels that could one day become contributors for the Cubs or be prized pieces in trades.