Why 2026 Will Be Pete Crow-Armstrong's Biggest Breakout

Since the day he was drafted, Pete Crow-Armstong’s glove has been regarded as the best in the minor leagues, so good that some speculated he could play center field in the big leagues as an 18-year-old. His elite speed and ability to track balls down paired with his arm talent make him must see TV defensively.  But like most prep bats, his bat needed work.  His aggressiveness on the bases and on defense make him incredibly fun to watch, but that aggressiveness is also what has been one of his biggest flaws as a hitter.

2025: The First Glimpse of Stardom

2025 saw Crow-Armstrong put everything together: he won his first Gold Glove, achieved his first 30-stolen-base, 30-home-run season, and ranked top 10 in WAR (6.0) in his age-23 season.  While his second half of the season was far less spectacular than his first half (.216/.262/.372), Crow-Armstrong showed the league he belongs in the big leagues and that he will contend as one of the best defenders, if not the best defender in the league.  But why will 2026 be an even bigger breakout for the star centerfielder? To answer that question, let's turn the clock back to 2023.

The Rocky Road to Consistency (2023-2024)

After playing in his first minor league season in 2022 and finishing with a .896 OPS, expectations were high for the speedy centerfielder. MLB.com ranked him as the 6th-best prospect in the Cubs season with the potential to be their top prospect come season's end. PCA did not disappoint, he clubbed 20 home runs and once again logged an OPS in the high .800’s (.876) across AA and AAA. 

With the Cubs in need of a boost heading into the playoff chase in late 2023, the Cubs called up Crow-Armstong to make his big league debut.  Unfortunately for him, he failed to record a hit and struck out seven times in his 19 plate appearances. His aggressive approach was exploited and left PCA without a hit going into 2024. However, evaluators saw the potential PCA possessed and ranked him as the best prospect in the Cubs system and the 28th-best prospect in all of baseball. Once again, the expectations were high for PCA, but this time, they included a major impact for the Cubs. 

After being left off the 2024 Opening Day roster, it didn’t take PCA to make his way back up to the big leagues. Cody Bellinger was placed on the injured list with a right rib fracture on April 24th, leaving an opening at center field for PCA to fill in.  Although Pete’s numbers to start in AAA weren’t spectacular to start (.203/.241/.392), he was ready to make an impact for the Cubs. After appearing as a defensive replacement in his first game, Pete would then start the following day and notch his first career hit off of Astro’s reliever Bryan Abreu, a 2-run go ahead home run that helped the Cubs win 3-1 over Houston.

PCA played better in his second taste at the big league level, but was still underwhelming at the plate hitting just .236/.295./364 in 23 games. He was sent back to AAA Iowa to keep working on his offense.  He responded immediately, slashing .387/.441/.806 with four doubles and three home runs in only seven games before being recalled from Iowa once again—this time for good.  Pete finished the ‘24 campaign hitting .237/.284/.388 in his final 100 games and while the offensive numbers weren’t stellar, it was his defense that made him the no doubt starting centerfielder for the 2025 Chicago Cubs.

The First-Half Wonder and the Second-Half Slump

After all of the struggles at the big league level, it would have been easy to label PCA as a glove-first center fielder whose bat won’t contribute much. Pete didn’t think so and turned in one of the best first halves of any Cub in recent memory. His slash line of .272/.307/.556, his 21 home runs, and his other-worldly defense in center got the attention of the whole league, with some putting him in the conversation of being that year's MVP should he continue at this pace. However, those aforementioned offensive struggles would surface once again and plague Pete for the remainder of the season.  He managed only six home runs in his final 62 games with an OPS under .650.  

While it is somewhat disappointing to see a player hit such extraordinary heights at such a tender age just to regress to a below league average hitting in the same season, we can still appreciate what Pete achieved.  To hit 31 home runs, steal 35 bases, make plays defensively that few others can, and registering 6 WAR is quite impressive regardless of how the second half ended. 

With all of this, it's hard to evaluate Pete.  Is he the MVP candidate he showed in the first half? Or is he the offensive liability with tremendous value in the field? With less than 300 career games, it's more appropriate to categorize Pete’s first 293 games as a career of halves.  

Season Half	2024 First Half	2024 Second Half	2025 First Half	2025 Second Half	Career First  Half	Career Second Half
Slash Line	.203/.253/.329	.262/.310/.425	.280/.325/.520	.218/.253/.446	.224/.281/.359	.252/.289/.496

 All of these ups and downs, while playing elite defense have many Cub fans dreaming about what he could be. But many wonder “what happened in the second half?” While the answer isn’t straightforward, a few things could have led to the sharp decline.

Pete was hit six times in the second half of 2025, with his right leg taking multiple “plunkings”.Furthermore, 2025 was his first full season in the big’s, and the grind of 162 games likely caught up to him. It’s hard to keep up that pace regardless if you’re healthy. Pete’s aggressiveness worked against him, as opposed to when it aided him in the first half.  His strike out rate jumped up 2% (23%-25%) and his pulled ball rate went up 10% (49%-59%). This suggests pitchers made an adjustment, and his aggressive nature allowed them to exploit it.

The 2026 Prediction

With an offseason to return healthy, without constantly worrying if he’ll make the Opening Day roster, an opportunity to work on that aggressiveness that has plagued him his entire career, and feeding that hunger to get better and chase the best; there shouldn’t be any doubt that Pete can come back in 2026 stronger. His entire career he's been able to take lessons learned from the season prior and apply them. 

Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of baseball's biggest and most exciting stars.  Children all over Chicago and the country idolize PCA and claim him as their favorite player.  He has a unique blend of speed and power that hasn’t been seen on the North Side since the days of Javier Baez. He’s battled through inconsistent play, people questioning where or not he can hit in the big leagues and seen the highs of hitting game-shattering home runs at Wrigley Field and the rush of winning a playoff series. PCA has all the talent to be one of the best players in the big leagues and there shouldn't be reason to think his 2025 first half will be an asterisk on his baseball reference page.